The assessment of climate change-related vulnerability in the agricultural sector: reviewing conceptual frameworks

1. CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVES OF THE PAPER Climate change is expected to impact on the agricultural sector in multiple ways, among others through increased variability with regard to temperature, rain, frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, changes in rain patterns and in water availability and through perturbations in ecosystems. The main effects on agricultural production are expected to be an increased variability of production, decrease of production in certain areas and changes in the geography of production. One way to cope with the challenges comprised by climate change is to build resilience for adaptation in the agriculture sector. The OECD and the FAO are working together on an analytical report that focuses on building resilience in agricultural production systems in the context of climate change. The report intents to respond to key policy concerns regarding climate change, its impact on agriculture and the implications for food security. For the analytical report, a general overview on climate change change-related risks and vulnerabilities will be provided by other contributors to the report. Furthermore, in order to illustrate specificities relative to addressing risks and vulnerability in agriculture, four thematic case studies will be carried out, capturing agricultural production systems in both developed and developing countries. In the context of the analytical report the objective of this paper is to provide a review of conceptual frameworks for the assessment of climate change-related vulnerability and give some examples of their application to the agricultural sector. Therefore the paper reviews existing interpretations, concepts and frameworks of vulnerability approaches in the climate change context. However, it has to be highlighted that the paper does not attempt to give a complete literature review on the vast interpretations and alternative concepts of vulnerability approaches. Instead, the paper rather aims to give a brief overview on main characteristics in vulnerability approaches, highlight major differences in alternative vulnerability interpretations, and give some reference examples for the agricultural sector. In doing so, the paper aims to: (i) help reduce complexity by easing understanding and communication; (ii) assist the comparison of different vulnerability approaches to identify